Iran has dramatically expanded its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in recent months, as revealed in a confidential report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently reviewed by AFP. The report has heightened apprehensions regarding Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, particularly in light of the deteriorating relationship between Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog following the collapse of the 2015 agreement aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
As of February 8, the IAEA estimated that Iran possesses approximately 274.8 kilograms (605 pounds) of uranium enriched to levels of up to 60 percent, which reflects an increase of 92.5 kilograms since the IAEA’s previous report in November. This level of enrichment is perilously close to the 90 percent threshold that is required to manufacture a nuclear weapon, adding a significant layer of urgency to the situation.
In December, Iranian authorities indicated their intent to escalate their uranium production in response to the adoption of a resolution by the IAEA’s board, which criticized Iran for its lack of cooperation with the agency. The country also announced plans to deploy “new and advanced” centrifuges to enhance its enrichment capabilities. While Iran maintains that it is pursuing nuclear energy solely for peaceful purposes, the IAEA’s report underscores concerns regarding Iran’s enrichment endeavors, noting that it remains the only non-nuclear weapon state to enrich uranium to a level surpassing that necessary for producing nuclear power.
The IAEA’s report highlighted that the increased production of highly enriched uranium, reaching rates of 35 to 40 kilograms per month, compared to around 6 kilograms previously, raises serious concerns globally. Tehran has been progressively scaling back its collaboration with the IAEA, including disabling surveillance devices essential for monitoring its nuclear activities and restricting access for UN inspectors, which raises alarms about transparency in its nuclear program.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has indicated plans to produce a comprehensive and updated assessment of Iran’s nuclear program, addressing the “presence and use of undeclared nuclear material” related to ongoing issues. As of early February, the overall stockpile of uranium held by Iran at various levels of enrichment was estimated to be 8,294.4 kilograms, a staggering amount that exceeds the 40 times the limit stipulated in the 2015 accord with world powers.
These reports coincide with the impending meeting of the IAEA board of governors and highlight the persistent challenge in reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, which aimed to bring the United States back into compliance while reintegrating Iran into the agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently dismissed any possibility of direct discussions with the United States concerning Iran’s nuclear agenda, especially after new sanctions were announced against Tehran by Washington.
Crisis Group analyst Ali Vaez commented on Iran’s stance, asserting that the nation would not engage in negotiations under pressure. The precarious dynamics of this situation trace back to when former President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the landmark 2015 agreement, straining relations and altering the landscape of diplomatic efforts in the region. As tensions escalate, the international community remains watchful of Iran’s next steps regarding its nuclear program and the possibility of renewed diplomatic negotiations.
