Recent analyses of leaked contracts, uncovered by the hacktivist group Black Moon, have shown that Russia is actively arming and training China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in preparation for potential operations against Taiwan. These documents, as evaluated by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), detail a comprehensive military support package that includes advanced weaponry and logistical capabilities.
Among the military assets listed are 37 BMD-4M assault vehicles, 11 Sprut-SDM1 anti-tank guns, and a range of troop carriers and command vehicles designed for modern warfare. Additionally, the package includes unmanned aerial systems, specifically Orlan-10 drones, as well as artillery command trucks. This extensive equipment is set to enhance the PLA’s combat readiness and operational flexibility.
Notably, the contracts also indicate Moscow’s agreement to supply specialized parachutes capable of delivering heavy payloads from significant altitudes. This capability could allow Chinese troops and equipment to be deployed deep behind enemy lines, increasing the strategic options available for a potential military engagement with Taiwan.
According to RUSI, Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the PLA to prepare for a possible takeover of Taiwan by the year 2027. However, significant logistical challenges exist, particularly concerning amphibious operations due to Taiwan’s limited number of suitable landing beaches and the vulnerability of its ports and airfields to enemy fire. These factors have led Beijing to consider airborne operations as a viable alternative strategy.
The contracts being analyzed also reveal that Russia is providing China with insights into amphibious tactics, which could bolster the PLA’s preparedness for diverse military scenarios, moving beyond traditional approaches to amphibious assaults. This exchange of tactical knowledge is believed to draw from Russia’s experiences in recent conflicts, including the ongoing situation in Ukraine, where challenges have arisen from complex military operations involving limited support for ground troops.
Preparatory activities for the PLA are anticipated to commence in Russia, culminating in live military exercises on Chinese soil. The ability to air-drop armored vehicles onto prepared sites near Taiwan’s key transport hubs could significantly enhance the combat capability of PLA airborne units. Analysts have indicated that successful landings in strategic locations would pave the way for subsequent troop deployments, potentially altering the regional balance of power.
The leaked information suggests a deepening defense partnership between Moscow and Beijing, moving past previous cautious interactions. RUSI notes that Russia perceives the potential invasion of Taiwan and the subsequent restructuring of global economic alliances as a means of enhancing its leverage over China, positioning itself as an essential supplier of military and material support.
Conversely, for China, investments in Russian military enterprises not only steer resources towards supporting the conflict in Ukraine but also aim to constrain NATO’s operational capabilities within Europe. This evolving relationship underscores a significant shift in geopolitical dynamics, with both nations increasingly aligning their military strategies and objectives.
