Australia has expressed strong confidence in the future of its agreement with the United States, aimed at equipping its navy with nuclear-powered submarines, following a review initiated by the Trump administration. The 2021 AUKUS pact, which includes Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, is a significant strategic initiative designed to counter China’s increasing military presence in the region.
This agreement not only focuses on supplying Australia with advanced nuclear-powered submarines but also encompasses collaboration on a range of warfare technologies. A spokesperson from Australia’s Department of Defence confirmed that the US administration is currently reassessing the AUKUS deal.
In response, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles expressed optimism regarding the outcome, stating he is “very confident” that Australia will receive the submarines. He noted that the review announcement was anticipated and welcomed, emphasizing that it is a standard procedure for a new administration to undertake. Australia is set to acquire a minimum of three Virginia Class submarines over the next 15 years, with plans for domestic manufacturing of its submarines in the future.
The situation highlights challenges within the US Navy, which currently operates 24 Virginia-class submarines that are capable of launching cruise missiles. However, US shipyards are reportedly struggling to meet their production targets, aiming for the delivery of two new submarines each year. Critics within the US have raised concerns regarding the sale of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, questioning the rationale behind such a transaction without first ensuring adequate stock for its own military needs.
Marles acknowledged the difficulties in boosting US production of the Virginia Class submarines but indicated ongoing close cooperation with the United States to address these challenges. He criticized the previous Australian government for its inconsistency regarding submarine choices, recalling the abrupt cancellation of a deal with France for diesel-powered submarines on the eve of announcing the AUKUS partnership, which incited significant dissatisfaction from Paris.
Forecasts suggest that the AUKUS submarine initiative may cost Australia up to $235 billion over the next three decades, a financial aspect that has attracted scrutiny of the overarching strategy. Former conservative Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull called for an independent review of AUKUS by Australia, suggesting that, unlike the US and UK, Australia has not evaluated its position. He expressed concern about the lack of inquiry and awareness within the Australian parliament.
Conversely, former Labor Party Prime Minister Paul Keating, a prominent critic of AUKUS, remarked that the US review might serve to protect Australia from potential missteps. He argued for Australia to establish its own security strategy, instead of aligning too closely with the interests of what he described as a “fading Atlantic empire.” He questioned why Australia has not prioritized its national interests in the same way.
Experts are cautious about the implications of any US review, especially given that AUKUS originated during the Biden administration. Euan Graham, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, noted that while there are risks involved, the deal remains advantageous for the US, with Australia already contributing resources to enhance American submarine production as part of the agreement. He concluded that it would be unrealistic for Australia to withdraw from AUKUS at this stage, cautioning that doing so could irreparably harm Australia’s international standing.
