Lebanon has found itself in a challenging situation as it strives to meet a year-end deadline for disarming Hezbollah, following a ceasefire with Israel. The Lebanese Armed Forces have reportedly exhausted their supply of demolition charges after successfully demolishing numerous Hezbollah weapons depots, primarily in the southern region of the country. This operation is part of a broader truce established in November 2024, which concluded over a year of intense conflict between the Israeli forces and the Iran-backed militia.
The ceasefire conditions stipulate that only state forces in Lebanon are permitted to possess weapons, which has led to a significant and unprecedented campaign of disarmament directed at Hezbollah. As the operation unfolded, the army ran out of demolition charges and is currently focused on sealing and guarding remaining weapons sites while awaiting new supplies from the United States.
The US has pledged significant support, amounting to $14 million dedicated to explosives and equipment, alongside an additional $192 million aimed at broader military assistance. However, the logistical challenges mean that these shipments might take months to reach Lebanese forces.
Amid these difficulties, US officials have intensified their pressure on Lebanon to persist with the disarmament of Hezbollah’s arsenal. Recent discussions in Beirut between US Deputy Middle East Envoy Morgan Ortagus and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun underscored this commitment.
To effectively locate Hezbollah’s military installations, the Lebanese Armed Forces depend on intelligence shared through a US-led coordination group that includes participation from Israel, France, and UN peacekeepers. However, operations have faced interruptions due to Israeli fire and the ongoing occupation of several strategic border hilltops, complicating inspection efforts according to military officials.
The situation in Lebanon is further complicated by a delicate political balance. Hezbollah, significantly weakened by the conflict that saw the death of thousands among its ranks, has not actively resisted the disarmament campaign in southern Lebanon. Nevertheless, the group insists that the disarmament should cease at the Litani River.
Military experts have expressed concerns that extending operations northward without a solid political agreement might exacerbate tensions and risk fracturing the Lebanese army along sectarian lines. Naim Qassem, the current leader of Hezbollah, has characterized the army’s approach as “good and balanced” but cautioned that targeting the Shiite community could trigger a violent response. He emphasized that the ultimate resolution hinges on achieving a political settlement, which remains elusive at this point. A Lebanese official close to Hezbollah noted that the army’s strategy appears to be one of patience, betting that time will yield a more favorable political landscape.
