Japan is currently contemplating the deployment of long-range missiles on its southwestern Kyushu island in a strategic move aimed at enhancing its “counterstrike capabilities” in response to perceived threats from China and North Korea. According to government sources, the initiative could come to fruition by the end of the next fiscal year, which concludes in March 2026. The proposed missile installations would potentially take place at the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force’s (JGSDF) surface-to-ship missile regiment garrisons located in Yufu in Oita Prefecture and the city of Kumamoto.
The JGSDF has reportedly chosen the Type-12 land-to-ship guided missile for this purpose, which boasts an operational range of 1,000 kilometers (approximately 621 miles). Kyushu’s geographical positioning makes it strategically significant; it faces the East China Sea to the west and lies just 905 kilometers (about 562 miles) north of Okinawa, an area that hosts both Japanese and American military bases and is one of the closest points to regions of escalating tension, such as Taiwan and the Chinese mainland.
Notably, sources indicate that Japan will avoid placing these long-range missiles in Okinawa to prevent aggravating existing regional tensions. This decision underscores Tokyo’s intent to reinforce its defense posture without escalating hostilities further.
The deployment is primarily seen as a deterrent against possible military aggression from China, particularly in relation to Taiwan, as well as addressing the ongoing threats posed by North Korea’s missile tests. This development reflects a broader trend in Japan’s defense strategy, characterized by a more proactive approach amidst changing geopolitical landscapes. The shift comes in light of U.S. expectations for Japan to increase its defense budget to 3 percent of its GDP, mirroring calls made during the Trump administration for NATO allies to augment their military spending.
Robert Dujarric, Co-Director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo, expressed concerns about the current state of the U.S.-Japan alliance, suggesting that its standing is precarious. He pointed out that even in the event of an attack on Japan by China, it is uncertain whether the U.S. would respond decisively, echoing prior reservations about U.S. commitments.
In recent months, Japan has also been strengthening its security collaborations with other nations, including deepening ties with the Philippines and entering into a $200-million agreement with the United States to support its Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectiles program. This trajectory indicates Japan’s ongoing commitment to fortifying its national defense capabilities in an increasingly complex regional security environment.
