The Russian military has demonstrated consistent progress in its operations in Ukraine throughout October, particularly focusing its offensive on the eastern Donetsk region, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based in the United States. This region has experienced some of the fiercest confrontations since the conflict erupted nearly four years ago, and Ukraine is currently striving to maintain its hold on the strategically significant city of Pokrovsk.
In the month of October alone, Russian forces managed to reclaim 461 square kilometers (approximately 286 square miles) of territory, a rate consistent with the average gains observed throughout this year. This figure represents a decline from the considerable advance seen in July, when Russia captured 634 square kilometers (around 245 square miles).
Moscow now asserts control over 81 percent of the Donetsk region, which it claims as annexed territory, and is actively pursuing efforts to achieve comprehensive dominance over it. The Kremlin has stipulated that Ukraine must withdraw its military presence not only from Donetsk, but also from the Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions as a prerequisite for any peace discussions. In response, Ukrainian officials have deemed such demands unacceptable.
Endless rounds of dialogue have failed to yield any significant resolution in the ongoing conflict, maintaining a stalemate that has persisted for months. As it stands, Russia controls or claims approximately 19.2 percent of Ukraine, which includes the Crimean peninsula, annexed in 2014, as well as territories in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions taken by Moscow-backed separatists prior to the full-scale invasion launched in February 2022.
Pokrovsk, a crucial logistics hub that has been under Russian pressure for over a year, faces intensified assaults. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted the difficult situation in the city, noting that between 260 and 300 Russian soldiers are actively engaged in combat there. He pointed out that around 30 percent of all frontline military actions are occurring in Pokrovsk, during a briefing with journalists.
Additionally, the ISW report indicated that Russia also expanded its reach into the Dnipropetrovsk region, west of Donetsk, where it captured 150 square kilometers (58 square miles) during the same period. It is worth noting that Dnipropetrovsk is not among the five regions that Moscow claims as its own, including Crimea.
At the peak of its invasion efforts in March 2022, Russia controlled approximately 27.7 percent of Ukraine territory; however, Ukrainian forces subsequently regained significant ground, pushing back Russian troops from large portions of both the eastern and southern regions.
