In a densely populated urban area, the Israeli army faces significant challenges in the ongoing conflict in Gaza City, particularly as it prepares to engage with an estimated thousands of Hamas fighters entrenched in the region. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently articulated his strategy for achieving victory after 22 months of war, directing military efforts towards the remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza City and central camps further south.
Once home to approximately 760,000 residents, Gaza City is now filled with a surge of displaced individuals fleeing the ongoing military operations. The city has endured relentless aerial bombardment, leading to a precarious coexistence of crumbling apartment buildings and makeshift tents, highlighting the dire humanitarian situation.
Amir Avivi, a former Israeli general and current head of the Israeli Defense and Security Forum, described Gaza City as the “heart of Hamas’ rule,” emphasizing its historical significance as the center of governance and military might for the group. However, the challenge of evacuating civilians as part of military operations remains a pressing concern. Avivi noted that around 300,000 residents of Gaza City have not relocated since the conflict began, in stark contrast to the rest of the Gaza Strip, where many have been displaced multiple times.
Efforts to redirect civilians toward humanitarian zones established by the Israeli military have faced obstacles, as existing resources are already stretched thin. Experts warn that accommodating an additional influx of people could exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis. Michael Milshtein, a former military intelligence officer, stressed the untenability of packing an additional million people into the limited space of humanitarian zones.
In a bid to encourage residents to leave, humanitarian aid distribution will reportedly shift south of Gaza City to sites managed by the US- and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which plans to expand its operational sites from four to sixteen. However, conflicting reports have emerged regarding Israeli troops allegedly targeting civilians near these aid sites, leading Human Rights Watch to label them a “death trap” and prompting outcry from international organizations regarding the militarization of humanitarian assistance.
Hamas’s military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, could boast a combat-ready force of 10,000 to 15,000 fighters, many of whom are recent recruits. Milshtein noted that the socio-economic conditions in Gaza make it relatively straightforward for Hamas to recruit young individuals eager to join its ranks. The organization remains poised for conflict as the situation escalates.
Israeli forces will face multiple obstacles in their advance, including a complex network of tunnels where hostages might be held, as well as stockpiles of weapons and fortified combat positions. Additional challenges include the threat of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and the strategic use of civilians as human shields in the city’s labyrinth of narrow streets and high-rise buildings.
International Crisis Group analyst Mairav Zonszein cautioned that entering Gaza City could lead to significant civilian casualties and a large-scale humanitarian disaster, predicting monumental destruction in the wake of military operations. Despite concerns regarding the feasibility of the operation, chief of the Israeli army Eyal Zamir expressed confidence that his forces could accomplish their objectives, drawing comparisons to previous military endeavors in Rafah and Khan Yunis.
The situation in Gaza City remains fluid, with the potential for extensive destruction and a deteriorating humanitarian landscape as both sides prepare for a confrontation that could significantly impact the region.
