Nepal’s regime change in September 2025—characterized by the resignation of Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli following violent youth-led protests—has fueled debate over the role of the American deep state in shaping political outcomes in the Himalayan nation.
Nepal Regime Change and Role American Deepstate
Timeline of the 2025 Nepal Regime Change
The spark for the latest political upheaval was a government order on social media regulation, which many Nepali youth saw as an assault on free expression. What began as peaceful rallies led by Gen Z quickly escalated into deadly confrontations between protesters and police, resulting in at least 19-22 deaths and hundreds of injuries. Amid mounting unrest, public outrage, and repeated strikes, Prime Minister Oli and his cabinet resigned, ceding authority to Nepal’s military as political order broke down.
Reports of Deep State and US Involvement
Speculation about the US deep state’s involvement intensified as analysts and regional media observed a familiar pattern: youth-driven street protests followed by a rapid fall of a China-friendly leader. Observers pointed out:
- Oli’s pivot towards China—including participation in the Belt and Road Initiative—had irked Western policymakers who view Nepal as critical to South Asia’s balance.
- The U.S. renewed its commitment to Nepal via the Millennium Challenge Corporation Compact, coinciding with heightened bilateral tensions.
- Similarities to events in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, where US interests were widely discussed after regime turmoil, prompted warnings of “US-engineered” revolutions.
Regional experts, like SL Kanthan, identified the crisis as a likely product of external—specifically American—manipulation, suggesting the uprising was not entirely organic but partly an implementation of the Western playbook for regime change.
Response & Impact
In the aftermath, the Nepali Army stepped in as political institutions faltered, aiming to restore order and invite dialogue. The political vacuum left major parties scrambling, with some leaders fleeing amidst threats of violence, while pro-monarchy activists, frustrated with the republic’s chronic instability, pressed for restoring the old system.
International Reaction
- India, China, and the US are all closely monitoring the situation, with the US accused by critics of using “soft power” and civil society proxies to steer Nepal’s political destiny away from China’s orbit.
- Protests and regime change in Nepal potentially signal a broader regional contest—between US and Chinese interests—across South Asia.
Conclusion
The regime change in Nepal is the result of a complex interplay between local frustration (especially among youth), international rivalries, and longstanding instability. While there is credible evidence of grassroots discontent, the scale, rapid escalation, and timing have contributed to the perception—and some analytical consensus—that the American deep state sought to tip Nepal’s political future away from Beijing’s influence.
