Sweden is set to significantly bolster its defense budget, committing approximately 300 billion kronor (around $30 billion) over the next ten years. This decision, announced by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, marks what he describes as the nation’s most substantial rearmament effort since the Cold War era.
Historically, Sweden had reduced its defense expenditures following the Cold War’s conclusion and into the early 2000s. However, the geopolitical landscape shifted dramatically after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, prompting a reevaluation of military spending. Kristersson emphasized that Sweden’s defense budget aims to reach 3.5 percent of the country’s GDP by 2030, a notable increase from the current 2.4 percent.
“We have a completely new security situation… and uncertainties will remain for a long time,” Kristersson stated. His remarks highlighted the importance of adapting to evolving security challenges in Europe.
The prime minister shared that Sweden’s decision to abandon its stance of military non-alignment was underscored by the need for collective security, particularly in the wake of Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine. Sweden’s application to join NATO followed, making it the alliance’s 32nd member by March 2024.
Currently, the Swedish government has already allocated funding that is anticipated to increase defense spending to approximately 2.6 percent of GDP within a few years, surpassing NATO’s previous two-percent spending mandate. However, Kristersson cautioned that this level of spending is insufficient for Sweden’s security needs. He expects NATO to consider increasing its spending target at an upcoming summit in June.
In March 2022, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sweden had previously announced its intent to raise defense spending to two percent of GDP “as soon as possible.” Historically, increases in defense budgets had been accommodated through Sweden’s regular budgetary process; however, Kristersson noted the necessity to borrow funds temporarily to expedite rearmament.
Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Ebba Busch remarked that the current strategy represents a comprehensive effort to strengthen Sweden’s defense capabilities, encompassing both military and civilian sectors.
This move has been partially influenced by previous concerns over Europe’s reliance on the United States for defense, especially during the Trump administration’s critical stance on NATO. Recently, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen introduced an initiative aimed at substantially increasing military budgets among member states, potentially mobilizing up to 800 billion euros.
Swedish Defence University associate professor Jacob Westberg commented on the planned increase, indicating that while the 3.5 percent GDP target marks a significant escalation from the low defense expenditures of the early 2000s, it still aligns with levels seen during the 1970s. Notably, Sweden invested over four percent of its GDP in defense during the 1950s, boasting the world’s fourth-largest air force and eighth-largest navy at the time.
Westberg also pointed out that while the announced budget increase signifies a critical investment, Sweden’s defense budget had already tripled to 120 billion kronor annually by 2024 compared to figures from a decade prior. He cautioned, however, that the process of enhancing military capabilities, particularly expanding troop numbers, is inherently time-consuming. Although funding can be swiftly translated into certain military resources, such as ammunition, the growth of the military structure requires a longer time frame to implement effectively. Thus, immediate effects from the increased funding may not be directly proportional to the investment made.
