As we transition into an era increasingly defined by artificial intelligence, the strategic landscape of future warfare is evolving. Central to this transformation is a reliance on cutting-edge technologies such as AI-powered drones, autonomous systems, advanced sensors, and the promising frontier of quantum computing. However, the lifeblood of these innovations lies in a narrow set of critical minerals, essential for powering and manufacturing these technologies.
Without decisive action, the United States risks falling into dependence on China, which has been methodically implementing a long-term strategy to control these vital resources. Should this scenario unfold, critical minerals may effectively be held hostage by the Chinese Communist Party, an outcome that could have dire consequences for U.S. national security.
The strategic importance of minerals cannot be overstated. Essential materials like copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and antimony are becoming increasingly vital for both military and economic competition. A lack of reliable access to these minerals could paralyze key sectors of the U.S. economy and its military capabilities. Securing a steady supply of these resources is paramount to ensure energy security, operational effectiveness, and technological advancement in the evolving landscape of warfare.
Historical precedents highlight the importance of strategic resource management. For instance, Britain’s rise to naval superiority in the eighteenth century was significantly aided by government incentives for developing precise navigation tools. Similarly, the U.S. in the nineteenth century encouraged private exploration of guano islands to secure essential fertilizers for agriculture. Lessons from adversarial actions, such as Germany’s wartime efforts to replace lost access to Chilean nitrates during World War I, underscore the importance of securing critical resources in times of need.
In the last 15 years, China has executed a deliberate strategy to dominate global supply chains for critical minerals. With extensive domestic deposits of essential materials, China has filled gaps in its mineral reserves through aggressive international partnerships and investments, especially noted in the cobalt-rich regions of Congo. Currently, China controls around 70% of the world’s processing capacity for critical minerals, in stark contrast to the lack of a cohesive strategy from the United States to counter this dominance.
The National Security Strategy under the Trump administration has recognized these vulnerabilities, articulating concerns over past decisions that have led to reliance on global supply chains. The strategy highlights the inherent dangers in this dependency, particularly regarding materials like antimony, which is crucial for U.S. military applications, including ammunition and advanced equipment. Yet, nearly half of the global supply comes from China, making U.S. military logistics precarious, especially following China’s recent export bans.
The call for action is urgent. A comprehensive, whole-of-government strategy to secure and process critical minerals is essential for revitalizing the defense industrial base. The recent geopolitical climate has made it clear that reliance on foreign sources for antimony, cobalt, lithium, and other key materials is untenable for maintaining military readiness and national security.
As the nation approaches the anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, achieving mineral independence should be a goal for the United States. This pursuit requires a concerted effort to create incentives that encourage private sector engagement in the exploration, extraction, and processing of critical minerals. Such measures could not only bolster national security but also pave the way for technological advancements that continue to define the modern era.
