A report by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a prominent US-based think tank, has raised concerns over a potential escalation of armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026, driven by increased terrorist activities. The study indicates a “moderate to high likelihood” of renewed tensions between the two countries, with terrorism cited as a critical flashpoint for conflict.
The report draws its conclusions from a survey of American foreign policy experts and highlights the efforts of the previous Trump administration, which aimed to de-escalate various global conflicts, including those between India and Pakistan. The CFR points to the complexities of international disputes, such as those in Ukraine and Gaza, as parallel challenges that need to be managed alongside South Asian tensions.
This forecast comes amidst the backdrop of a significant military confrontation in May 2025. A deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, claimed the lives of 26 civilians, leading to heightened military responses. The Indian Army executed Operation Sindoor on the night of May 6, targeting terrorist infrastructure within Pakistan. Indian assessments reported the neutralization of over 100 terrorists and nine terror camps during this operation.
In retaliation, Pakistan attempted several armed drone strikes from May 7 to May 10, aimed at both military and civilian targets in India. Fortunately for India, these incursions were intercepted and neutralized without any reported casualties or damage. The intense military engagement ultimately led to a diplomatic resolution, as pressure on Pakistan’s military leadership prompted discussions between the Directors General of Military Operations of both nations, resulting in a ceasefire agreement on May 10.
The CFR report does not limit its focus to India-Pakistan relations but also highlights the broader regional instability, particularly concerning the potential for conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2026. The resurgence of cross-border militant activities, specifically by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), is a significant factor. Earlier tensions escalated following a Pakistani airstrike on TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud, triggering retaliatory actions and exacerbating border hostilities.
Looking towards 2026, the CFR emphasizes that terrorism remains the most potent trigger for conflict in South Asia. The report calls for sustained counter-terrorism efforts, diplomatic engagement, and regional stabilization to prevent a deterioration of India-Pakistan relations and avert potential military confrontations.
The findings underline the fragile security environment in the region, where operational terror networks and rapid military responses continue to challenge peace and stability. The potential for renewed conflict between the two nuclear powers poses serious risks not only for their respective countries but for the broader region as well.
